Does crafting in DSO is rigged?

Discussion in 'Speakers‘ Corner' started by KingsGambit, Jan 29, 2020.

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  1. KingsGambit

    KingsGambit Forum Expert

    As above, curious about yours opinion. Personally I recently kept track of outcomes at pink crafts - from last 3000 tries with 1+1+x+x platinum line 1 platinum passed in 284 cases, double not yet. As we know chance of passing at least 1 platinum is 45,5%... well theoretically. Wonder if you guys have similar feelings.
     
  2. TwiliShadow

    TwiliShadow Count Count

    Your numbers are not quite correct.
    You have 2 desirable lines out of 12 existing lines. Your chances are:
    • 54.55% chance to get 0 lines.
    • 40.91% chance to get 1 of those lines.
    • 4.55% chance to get both desirable lines.

    Now if you go with a 1+1+1+1, then that's 4 of 12. Now, your chances are:
    • 25.45% to get 0 lines
    • 50.91% to get 1 line
    • 21.82% to get 2 lines - (what you really desire)
    • 1.82% to get 3 lines - (what you dream of getting)

    Some where in this forum is the "Gold Line Transfer Probability Table" that I got from @_Baragain_ . If you search and truly can't find it, I do have it where I can re-post it.

    Now as for your question about 'rigged'. So much evidence points to where on the bell curve a given toon exists. Some toons seem to be way luckier than most and some toons seem to be way unluckier than most. I've been convinced that I was on the unlucky side for years. However, I've recently gotten some crafts and drops that suggest that where a toon is on the bell curve "migrates". The unfortunate part of that is that you don't know unless you try.

    So, mostly you loose at the GAMBLING BENCH. Remember, when your trying to get those Enchantments to go... it's not Crafting 2.0, it's Gambling 2.0 that your engaging in.

    Gems.. that's crafting. Runes... that's crafting. Potions/Elixirs/Physics... that's crafting. You put in the ingredients and you get the same output every time. There are no chances in crafting. Only in gambling.
     
    Athiae likes this.
  3. KingsGambit

    KingsGambit Forum Expert

    Seriously... you pointing out incorrect probability and than you post same stuff. I know probabilities and would be nice if you read carefuly so you don't have to reinvent the wheel.

    As for crafting I meant strickly enchantment transfers of course. Maybe even only platinum ones as was too much hassle to keep track of ordinary gold stuff.

    My point is that it is known that kind of "rng improvement" exists in some games. Here I got almost 1/6-th of avg. in quite respectable samplesize. Variance always possible but enough to ask some questions. I'm too tired of tracking bench so giving up and asking you guys what is your opinion. That's all. No offence Twilli but you could spare that pseudolecture about "gambling".
     
  4. TwiliShadow

    TwiliShadow Count Count

    Umm... Nope. The probabilities I posted are correct.
    And I'm just saying that we should call enchantment random transfers what it really is: Gambling.

    And it's not a pseudolecture. It's more an emphasized request to call something by what it is, directed to everybody. :)
     
  5. ΣMiwel

    ΣMiwel Forum Ambassador

    Yeah, but you claimed his probablity wasn't...
    ...but actually it was correct as well:
    40,91% + 4,55% = 45,46%, which can be rounded to 45,5%
    at least 1 = 1 or more, i.e. 1 or 2

    And yeah, I agree with you both that something is quite wrong with crafting. PRNG has its ups and downs all the time as with unique drops, and that's what's wrong with it. If it is going to be like that, let us at least increase our odds at reasonable price (i.e. make the crafting return all the 4 items on revert, so that we can craft 1-1-1-1, 2-2-2-2 and 3-3-3-3 and all get to our target with similar effort).
     
  6. TwiliShadow

    TwiliShadow Count Count

    Nope. Doesn't work that way. Sorry. You can't ..... Shazzbot !
    I don't round from the table. Prefer 3 decimal places. I stand corrected.

    I'm always looking for 2 or 3 to go, so rarely put less than 6/12 into the gambling bench when doing Exo to Leg. And I would never accept less than 2 plats on a leg unless it's got 2 81+ gold lines with the one plat.

    The end goal for me is to have 4 legs with 11-12 desirable lines. Sad thing is that with only 4 bad lines, I get that way too many times and it's _supposed_ to be as rare as putting 4/16 desirable lines in and getting 2-4 of them. :(

    Or only keep the last item and give us the first 3 back.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2020
  7. KingsGambit

    KingsGambit Forum Expert

    Ok if you insist on 0.04% accuracy than I'm sincerely apologizing :D;)
    I do the craft slightly differently but it isn't the topic I feel.

    Yeah I also agree that crafts often comes in waves which is strange. Hard to measure it somehow though, but most of players have similar feelings which i wouldn't underestimate. As for keeping more than 2 items i'm not a big fan. I can still envision some good changes at workbench... or fair rng if this one we are having is rigged :p