Our 900-Run Journey to Prove the [Anniversary weapon] Isn't Just an Urban Legend.

Hey everyone,

I'm trying to figure out the drop rate for a specific weapon. Our group has been farming this boss like crazy, and we haven't had any luck yet. Here's a quick rundown of our attempts:

• Our group size: 15 players
• Runs per player: 60
• Total attempts: 15×60=900

So, with 900 total drop attempts, it's pretty wild that absolutely no one in our group has gotten the weapon. This is the key piece of data for my calculations.
The Drop Rate Analysis

If the drop rate were, say, 1 in 100 (1%), the odds of this happening would be incredibly low. The probability of not getting a single drop after 900 attempts would be (1−0.01)900=(0.99)900≈0.00012%. That's essentially zero.
This tells us that the drop rate is likely much lower than 1%.
To get a more realistic estimate, we need to find a drop rate where the probability of zero drops in 900 attempts is a "reasonable" value. A reasonable value means it's rare, but not statistically impossible. Let's look at some examples:

• If the drop rate is 1 in 500 (0.2%): The chance of not getting the weapon in 900 attempts is (1−0.002)900=(0.998)900≈0.165. This works out to a 16.5% chance of getting no drops, which is a plausible scenario.
• If the drop rate is 1 in 1000 (0.1%): The chance of no drops in 900 attempts is (1−0.001)900=(0.999)900≈0.406. This is a 40.6% chance of getting no drops, which is even more likely.

Based on these numbers, our situation—no drops after 900 attempts—suggests the weapon's drop rate is likely between 0.1% and 0.2%. This is roughly equivalent to 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000.
This feels like the most probable estimate. What do you all think? Has anyone else had a similar experience with this boss?

 

i got the weapon last year after 80ish runs, this year, no drop in 60. However my friend go it this year on his 7th attempt, the people in my guild seem to be mostly getting it within 200 runs with a few exceptions, I'm on Agathon server if that makes a difference

 

It's all nice on paper, but in reality it just doesn't work like that. Luck will be the deciding factor in the end, doesn't matter if its 0.1% or 5%

If I put 100 balls in a box and 95 are black and 5 are red...it could take you forever to get a red ball or you grab it first try and thats exactly how it works in DSO.
I know a couple people who got sargon amulet on their 1st run and I still havent dropped it after 3-4000 runs. I got the weapon probably after like 150 runs, but got 2 guildies who are trying every year and not got it.

Live with it and keep trying or quit the game and don't get frustrated anymore