full moon silver ess drop rate has been reduced

i did 4 runs at the full moon event today and realized the silver essence drop rate was lower than before the lvl 45 item implimantation.

why was the drop rate lowered? why wasnt the community informed?

or unique drop rate means drop rate of a map?

*before the lastest patch 300 silver essence pack would drop several times per run. after the patch it didnt drop once in 4 runs. Jullov also seems to be parallel with unique drop rate. 2 patches before you could come across Jullov more often.

 

4 runs is not a representative sample from which one can draw accurate conclusions, it's like flipping a coin a few times and concluding that it drops on heads 80% of the time because eight of your ten flips ended as heads. As you continue to flip the coin, your average will get closer to the actual average which is 50%.
Similarly, as you do more runs, you average drop rate will improve if it was below actual average, or drop if it was above.

 

@Lordcl , I am certain that the drop rate of silver essences is not lower than before.
Last nigh I have made two runs and I have collected 6 scrolls of silver power. First run 2 and the second run 4 (including Jullov at the map).

 

thank you Mal3ficent for your sensible reply. and spiro i wasnt asking for a pecture in logic and btw it is never 50% that flipping the coin thing. read some statistics.

i was wondering if anyone else was experiencing lower drop rates?

 

Lordcl, you are the one who does not understand statistics, I took it for two years at advanced math in gymnasium and later two more years at university, so I know very well what I'm talking about. If you understood probability and statistics you would not be making these statements. Representative sample, look it up. Btw flipping a coin is exactly 50-50 if you discount the possibility of the coin landing on the edge rather than one of the sides.

 

I, too, made four runs, primarily to check out the changes made in the Moon events a month or so ago. Made 2 scrolls on each of the first two runs and one each on the last two. I came away wondering if the drop rate had increased. I did not, thank goodness, run into that aggravating little Jullov and his bunch.

 

Hate to burst your bubble spiro but you are incorrect and Lordcl is correct. THEORETICALLY flipping a coin is 50-50, but the results are not always exact. They are always skewed one way or another. You are right in saying with a larger sample it will move TOWARDS 50-50, but hardly ever will it be truly even.

Seems like Lordcl just had a bad run with drops. Hopefully it'll balance out with some good ones...

 

R119, 32 rounds, 2060 silver essences/round.
R122, 10 rounds, 2180 silver essences/round.
Just my records, not every day farming.

 

@ Mooky - You fail to notice the difference between probability and outcome. Even if probability is 50-50, it does not mean that the coin cannot drop on heads 10 times out of 10. Likewise, a drop probability of 0.000000000000001% does not prevent you from getting two drops in a row, it just makes it highly unlikely.
Hate to burst your bubble 8), but you should really learn some statistics before making assertions, otherwise you just end up looking silly. What you are calling 'theoretically' is actually 'probability'.

 

Don't be ignorant. Probability isn't an exact term, it's PROBABLE results, not GUARANTEED. You keep saying learn statistics, but I guarantee you I know more math than you do. I clearly stated the difference and also clearly stated that it'll approach a 50-50 distribution but never truly get there. Maybe english and comprehension should be next on your list, right after math that is...

Which by the way... I said it would approach 50-50, which is in THEORY the average. But as you and your great knowledge of statistics should know, it's never the result you get from any sample. As I stated, it's skewed towards one side or the other. I never said the chance of the outcome isn't 50-50, just simply stated that the result is never black and white as you're trying to make it. 50-50 is a theoretical result, as you have seen with actual results it's never the case. The results are always random, or it wouldn't be called probability.

 

Guys, what is the probability of closing the thread if you keep off topic argument?

 

100! Now that's actual results!

 

Who said Mods have no sense of humor? I love it!

 

No problem, dropping the issue.

 

thank you silly sword. my previous runs also 2000+ silver essences a run. just yesterday they were at 1400 a run. i will try again tomorrow and post the results